BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) Chief Economist Cameron Muir discusses the December 2014 statistics:



If you have any questions pertaining to this report please contact: 


Cameron Muir Chief Economist Direct: 604.742.2780 Mobile: 778.229.1884 Email: cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca 

Damian Stathonikos Director of Communications and Public Affairs Direct: 604.742.2793 Mobile: 778.990.1320 Email: dstathonikos@bcrea.bc.ca 


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Listen to BC Real Estate Association Chief Economist Cameron Muir as he discusses the latest statistics:

 

 

Click here to visit our YouTube channel. Read the news release here.

 

For inquiries regarding statistical and economics-related news releases, please contact:

 

Cameron Muir
Chief Economist
604.742.2780
cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca 
Brendon Ogmundson
Economist
604.742.2796
bogmundson@bcrea.bc.ca

 

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The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 5,972 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in November, up 8.8 per cent from November 2013. Total sales dollar volume was $3.4 billion, an increase of 12.1 per cent compared to a year ago. The average MLS® residential price in the province rose to $574,694, up 3.1 per cent from the same month last year.

 

"BC home sales were robust in November," said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. "Improving economic conditions, strong consumer confidence and persistently low mortgage interest rates are providing a solid foundation for elevated consumer demand."

 

"Market conditions have improved province-wide, with most regional markets now in the mid to high range of a balanced market," added Muir.

 

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 22.1 per cent to $44.8 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales were up 15.3 per cent to 78,973 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 6.0 per cent at $567,292.


- See more here.


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The increase in BC home sales in both unit numbers and dollar volume is continuing unabated, according to a British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) report released December 12.

 

The report, compiled from the combined monthly reports of the province’s 12 real estate boards, found that the number of units sold in BC rose 8.8 per cent year over year to 5,972 units, and the dollar volume of sales province-wide totalled $3.4 billion, up 12.1 per cent compared with November 2013.

 

The average MLS residential price in BC rose to $574,694, up 3.1 per cent from the same month last year.

“BC home sales were robust in November,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA chief economist.

 

“Improving economic conditions, strong consumer confidence and persistently low mortgage interest rates are providing a solid foundation for elevated consumer demand.

 

“Market conditions have improved province-wide, with most regional markets now in the mid to high range of a balanced market.”

 

Only three regional boards posted a decrease in unit sales in November. These were northern BC (down 6.8 per cent), Kamloops (down 5.2 per cent) and Kootenay (down 1.1 per cent).

 

Year to date, BC residential unit sales are up 15.3 per cent to 78,973 units, and residential sales dollar volume is up 22.1 per cent to $44.8 billion, compared with the same period last year. The average MLS residential price is up 6 per cent at $567,292 year to date.


UPDATE: Sales activity across Canada in November stood 2.7 per cent above levels reported in the same month last year, according to Canadian Real Estate Association statistics released December 15.

 

November sales were up from year-ago levels in about half all regional markets, led by Greater Vancouver and the Fraser Valley, Calgary and Greater Toronto.

 

Nationwide year-to-date sales activity in November was 5 per cent above levels in the first 11 months of 2013. It was also slightly 2.4 per cent above the 10-year average for year-to-date sales.

 

The nationwide Aggregate Composite MLS house price index rose by 5.19 per cent on a year-over-year basis in November.

 

The average price for Canadian homes sold in November 2014 was $413,649, up 5.7 per cent from the same month last year.

 

The CREA said, "The national average home price continues to be raised considerably by sales activity in Greater Vancouver and Greater Toronto, which are among Canada’s most active and expensive housing markets. Excluding these two markets from the calculation, the average price is a relatively more modest $331,743 and the year-over-year increase shrinks to 5 per cent."


See more at: http://www.rew.ca/news/bc-home-sales-up-8-8-in-november-prices-up-3-bcrea-1.1663634

 

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As reported from BCREA:

 

In stark contrast to the consensus of economists expectations at the end of last year, bond yields have spent most of 2014 trending downward. Indeed, perhaps weary of previous false starts, bond markets have even shrugged off recent signs of a strengthening economy, an acceleration of inflation and the unwinding of stimulus from the US Federal Reserve. Lenders have responded in kind, offering homebuyers record low mortgage rates.

 

 

Given well anchored inflation expectations and near consensus that short-term rates will be higher next year, the continued downtrend in bond yields this year is difficult to explain. One factor could be that investors are acclimating to the idea that the neutral rate, or the Bank of Canada’s preferred destination for interest rates once it tightens,
is likely much lower than in the past and that realization is being priced into expectations and therefore long-term interest rates.

 

Additionally, the performance of Canada’s financial and banking system post-financial crisis has won it a reputation among foreign investors as a safe harbor. Foreign holdings of Canadian government bonds and treasury bills have jumped from 15 per cent to over a quarter of outstanding debt since the global financial crisis. As uncertainty mounts in other areas of the world due to weak economic growth or unresolved conflicts, assets have crowded into both US and Canadian debt securities, forcing yields lower. Given these factors, rates could remain below historical average levels even as the Bank of Canada begins tightening.

 

While we do not expect the Bank to act on interest rates until late in 2015, bond yields could rise modestly before then in anticipation of higher rates, particularly if economic growth is stronger than expected. If so, we expect to see a slight increase in five-year and one-year fixed mortgage rates by the end of 2014.

 

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The BCREA Commercial Leading Indicator (CLI) rose 1.4 index points to a new record high of 118.4, surpassing the previous high of 117.1 set in the second quarter of 2014.

 

“Momentum has been building in
sectors most important to commercial
real estate,” said BCREA Economist
Brendon Ogmundson, “That momentum
should translate to a strong year for the
commercial market in 2015.”

 

The CLI has now advanced for seven consecutive quarters. That trend signals significant strength in the economic environment underlying the commercial real estate market.

 

A rising trend in the CLI generally points to growth in investment, leasing and other commercial real estate activity two to four quarters ahead. Given the current trend, we would expect growth in the commercial real estate market for the remainder of 2014 and the first half of 2015.

 

For more information, please contact:

Brendon Ogmundson
Economist
Direct: 604.742.2796
Mobile: 604.505.6793
Email: bogmundson@bcrea.bc.ca

 

Damian Stathonikos

Director, Communications and Public Affairs

Direct: 604.742.2793

Mobile: 778.990.1320

Email: dstathonikos@bcrea.bc.ca

 

 

 

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Watch BCREA Chief Economist Cameron Muir discuss the October 2014 statistics: 



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TheBritish Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 7,648 residential unit sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in October, up 14.6 percent from October 2013. Total sales dollar volume was $4.4 billion, an increase of 22 per cent compared to a year ago. The average MLS® residential price in the province rose to $575,504, up 7.1 per cent from the same month last year. 

 

“Consumer demand for housing continues at an elevated level,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “There were more homes purchased during the first ten months of the year than during all of 2013”. To the end of October, 73,001 homes have traded hands in the province compared to 72,936 for all of last year."

 

“Strong year-over-year increases in housing demand were experienced in Chilliwack (up 31 per cent), Victoria (up 21.9 per cent) and the Kootenay (up 19.4 per cent) market areas. Vancouver, Vancouver Island, the Fraser Valley and Okanagan Mainline also posted a marked increase in sales activity last month."

 

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 23 per cent to $41.4 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales were up 15.8 per cent to 73,001 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 6.2 per cent at $566,687.

 

For more information, please contact: 

Cameron Muir

Damian Stathonikos

Chief Economist

Director of Communications and Public Affairs

Direct: 604.742.2780

Direct: 604.742.2793

Mobile: 778.229.1884

Mobile: 778.990.1320

Email: cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca

Email: dstathonikos@bcrea.bc.ca

 

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BCREA reports on mortgage rates:

 

In stark contrast to the consensus of economists’ expectations at the end of last year, bond yields have spent most of 2014 trending downward. Indeed, perhaps weary of previous false starts, bond markets have even shrugged off recent signs of a strengthening economy, an acceleration of inflation and the unwinding of stimulus from the US Federal Reserve. Lenders have responded in kind, offering homebuyers record low mortgage rates.

 

 

Given well anchored inflation expectations and near consensus that short-term rates will be higher next year, the continued downtrend in bond yields this year is difficult to explain. One factor could be that investors are acclimating to the idea that the neutral rate, or the Bank of Canada’s preferred destination for interest rates once it tightens,
is likely much lower than in the past and that realization is being priced into expectations and therefore long-term interest rates.

 

Additionally, the performance of Canada’s financial and banking system post-financial crisis has won it a reputation among foreign investors as a safe harbor. Foreign holdings of Canadian government bonds and treasury bills have jumped from 15 per cent to over a quarter of outstanding debt since the global financial crisis. As uncertainty mounts in other areas of the world due to weak economic growth or unresolved conflicts, assets have crowded into both US and Canadian debt securities, forcing yields lower. Given these factors, rates could remain below historical average levels even as the Bank of Canada begins tightening.

 

While we do not expect the Bank to act on interest rates until late in 2015, bond yields could rise modestly before then in anticipation of higher rates, particularly if economic growth is stronger than expected. If so, we expect to see a slight increase in five-year and one-year fixed mortgage rates by the end of 2014.

 

For more insight, please click through to the BCREA report here.

 

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The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 7,341 residential sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in August, up 7 per cent from August 2013. Total sales dollar volume was $4.1 billion, an increase of 12.4 per cent compared to a year ago. The average MLS® residential price in the province rose to $560,318, up 5 per cent from the same month last year.

 

“Consumer demand remained relatively robust in August,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “The Okanagan and Chilliwack board areas posted the strongest year-over-year gain of 22 to 25 per cent in unit sales, while Victoria and Vancouver increased around 10 per cent respectively.” Home sales last month were the highest for the month of August since 2009.

 

“Low mortgage rates, increased net-migration and improving economic conditions continue to underpin housing demand in the province,” added Muir.

 

Year-to-date, BC residential sales dollar volume was up 22.8 per cent to $28.5 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales were up 15.8 per cent to 57,715 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 6.1 per cent at $564,466.


See more here.

 

 

 

 

 

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The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2014 Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

 

"Stronger than expected consumer demand in the third quarter triggered an upward revision in the housing forecast,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Rising consumer demand is now broad-based across the province, with some of the largest year-over-year gains occurring in the Okanagan and the Kootenay regions."

 

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to increase 9.8 per cent to 80,100 units this year, before rising a further 4 per cent to 83,300 units in 2015. The previous forecast was for 76,700 and 81,800 unit sales respectively in 2014 and 2015. The 15-year average is 80,400 unit sales and a record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.  

 

The average MLS® residential price for the province is forecast to increase 5.6 per cent to a record $567,300 this year and a further 1.4 per cent to $575,400 in 2015. “Since the housing stock is generally expanding at the same pace as population and household growth, rapid escalation of home prices is not expected over the next two years,” added Muir. BC housing starts are forecast to edge up 2 per cent to 27,600 units this year and a further 1.8 per cent to 28,100 units in 2015.

 

To view the full BCREA Housing Forecast Update, click here.

 

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The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 8,989 residential sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in June, up 24.9 per cent from June 2013. Total sales dollar volume was $5 billion, an increase of 30.5 per cent compared to a year ago. The average MLS® residential price in the province rose to $556,977, up 4.5 per cent from the same month last year.

 

“Home sales finished the second quarter on an upward trend,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “The increase in provincial housing demand was broad-based, with the largest year-over-year increases occurring in the Okanagan, the Kootenays and Chilliwack.”

 

Home sales climbed 46 per cent in the South Okanagan and nearly 30 per cent in the Okanagan Mainline Real Estate Board area. In addition, home sales rose 36 per cent in the Kootenays and 33 per cent in Chilliwack compared to the same month last year.

 

“Market conditions also continued to improve, with the Okanagan and the Lower Mainland even flirting with sellers’ market conditions,” added Muir.

 

During the half of the year, BC’s residential sales dollar volume was up nearly 26.8 per cent to $23.8 billion, compared to the same period last year. Residential unit sales were up 18.5 per cent to 41,883 units, while the average MLS® residential price was up 7 per cent at $568,499.

 

For the complete news release, including detailed statistics, click here.


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For more information, please contact: 

Cameron Muir

Damian Stathonikos

Chief Economist

Director of Communications and Public Affairs

Direct: 604.742.2780

Direct: 604.742.2793

Mobile: 778.229.1884

Mobile: 778.990.1320

Email: cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca

Email: dstathonikos@bcrea.bc.ca

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The Vancouver Sun reports: Another healthy jump in real estate sales across the Lower Mainland in June is putting some areas “on the cusp” of a seller’s market where demand outstrips supply and pushes prices higher, according to reports released by the region’s major real estate boards.




The most recent sales results fit with Central 1 Credit Union’s latest housing forecast, which estimates that the surprise cut in mortgage rates earlier this year will produce a modest, steady rise in housing demand even as interest rates move higher in coming years.

Read more here.


 

 

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The BCREA posted a report on the current state of the mortgage industry and I'd like to share some of that with you today.

 

Mortgage Rate Outlook

 

"Low long-term interest rates and heightened competition in the mortgage market pushed both posted and discounted mortgage rates to record lows during the second quarter. The posted five-year fixed rate reached a historical low of 4.79 per cent in May and many lenders have advertised sub-3 per cent five-year fixed rates as well as steeply discounted variable rates."

 

 

For the full report, and more information on economic outlook please click here.

 

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Here is a wonderful post I just had to share with you, from the financialpost.com on quick and profitable sales this summer!

 

 

After a brutal winter, the heat has finally arrived and with it, expectations of a hotter real estate market. The flurry of housing activity normally reserved for early spring is extending into the summer, industry experts say.

 

“The pent up demand from the winter is coming to fruition. As soon as listings come out, they’re being swallowed up,” Gurinder Sandhu, executive vice-president at RE/MAX’s Ontario-Atlantic Canada Division, says.

 

“For buyers there are more choice and for sellers there are more buyers.”

 

How you price your home and how you prepare its for sale are key.

 

“Price trends from one neighbourhood to the next can be very different,” Gregory Klump, chief economist at the Canadian Real Estate Association. “If you price your property too high, there is a chance it’ll sit on the market without offers.”

 

Click here to see how three recent home sellers weighed their options, and came out with the sale price they were looking for.


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Muted Impact Expected From Cancelled Investor Immigrant Program

 

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 4,244 residential sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in January, up 24.5 per cent from January 2013. Total sales dollar volume was $2.4 billion, an increase of 36.8 per cent compared to a year ago.  The average MLS® residential price in the province rose to $565,036, up 9.9 per cent from the same period last year.

 

"Residential sales activity in the province posted the strongest January since 2010,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Consumer demand has recovered from last year’s lower levels and is now trending at the long-term average.” The ten-year average for January is 4,276 unit sales.

 

"Stronger economic conditions are expected to underpin a modest uptick in home sales later this year,” added Muir.

 

The demise of the federal Immigrant Investor Program is expected to have little impact on the Metro Vancouver housing market. “The only impact we foresee is less pressure on the inventory of detached homes in Vancouver’s West Side, Richmond and West Vancouver,” said Muir.

 

The number of investor immigrant landings peaked at 5,876 in 2008 before declining to just 2,644 in 2012, with a similar number expected for 2013. These numbers include spouses and dependents. The total number of added households is estimated to be between 900 and 1,000 per year since 2011.

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In its recently tabled budget, the Federal Government effectively cancelled a program, the Canadian Immigrant Investor Program (IIP), which afforded wealthy prospective immigrants access to fast-tracked immigration.  The program, which began in 1995, allowed immigrants with $1.6 million or more in assets (the amount was increased from $800,000 in 2010) to make an interest free loan to the Canadian government of $800,000 for a period of 5 years in return for Canadian citizenship. At the end of the five-year term, the principal of the loan was returned. 

The IIP was a popular avenue for those with significant wealth to immigrate to Canada. An average of 7,100 people entered through the program each year from 1995 to 2012. Traditionally British Columbia has been a popular final destination, with an average of 3,300 immigrants locating in BC since the program’s inception. That number peaked from 2008 to 2010 at approximately 5,650 but slowed to just 2,600 in 2012 as new applications were halted while the Federal Government determined the future of the IIP.

 

It is important to note that these numbers include all members of the household, and so to get a more accurate estimate of the number of new household formations, it is common to divide the total number by the average immigrant household size.   Therefore, we estimate that an average of 1,200 households per year located in BC through the IIP from 1995 to 2012, with that number climbing to 2,100 during the peak years of 2008 to 2010 and falling off to 1,430 in 2011 and just 979 in 2012. Data available for 2013 indicates a similar number of immigrants through the IIP as in 2012.

 

The impact of the IIP on the economy and the housing market of British Columbia as a whole is relatively insignificant.  At its peak, immigration through the IIP represented only 13 per cent of total immigration to BC, and most years it has been less than 10 per cent. That said, the impact of 1,200 to 2,100 new millionaire households settling each year in select Vancouver neighborhoods has likely been a factor in rising single-family home prices in those areas, though far from the most important factor.  If there is any impact from the Government’s decision, we anticipate it will be contained to the very high-end of the real estate market. Notably, we have not observed an uptick in inventories in those areas most impacted by the IIP, even as immigration through the program has dropped by half.



 

For more information, please contact: 


Cameron Muir

Chief Economist

Direct: 604.742.2780604.742.2780

Mobile: 778.229.1884778.229.1884

Email: cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca

 

or


Brendon Ogmundson

Economist

Direct: 604.742.2796604.742.2796

Mobile: 604.505.6793604.505.6793

Email: bogmundson@bcrea.bc.ca


Till next time ...


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BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) Chief Economist Cameron Muir discusses the December 2013 statistics.

 

 

For more information on this report please contact:

 

Cameron Muir
Chief Economist
604.742.2780
cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca or

 

Brendon Ogmundson
Economist
604.742.2796
bogmundson@bcrea.bc.ca

 

Till next time ...

 

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BCREA 2014 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update

 

The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2014 First Quarter Housing Forecast Update today.

 

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to increase 4.8 per cent to 76,450 units this year, before increasing a further 7 per cent to 81,800 units in 2015. The five-year average is 75,400 unit sales, while the ten-year average is 84,400 unit sales. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.

 

"Housing demand in the province has nearly fully recovered from the 2012 downturn,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Over the next year, BC will be the beneficiary of more robust global economic growth, led by a resurgent US economy and a favourable exchange rate. The resulting boost in employment will help underpin the housing market."  

 

"Home prices are not expected to climb much higher than the overall inflation rate as housing starts are expected to keep pace with consumer demand, added Muir. The average MLS® residential price is forecast to increase 1.8 per cent to $547,300 this year and a further 1.7 per cent to $556,800 in 2015.

 

To view the full BCREA Housing Forecast Update, click here.

 

For more information, please contact:

Cameron Muir

Damian Stathonikos

Chief Economist

Director of Communications and Public Affairs

Direct: 604.742.2780

Direct: 604.742.2793

Mobile: 778.229.1884

Mobile: 778.990.1320

Email: cmuir@bcrea.bc.ca

Email: dstathonikos@bcrea.bc.ca

 

 

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The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) reports that a total of 72,936 residential sales were recorded by the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in BC during 2013, up 7.8 per cent from 2012. The five-year average is 75,400 units, while the ten-year average is 84,800 units. Total sales dollar volume was $39.2 billion, an increase of 12.6 per cent compared to 2012. The average annual MLS® residential price in the province rose to $537,414 last year, up 4.4 per cent from 2012.

 

"After declining nearly 12 per cent in 2012, home sales posted steady growth through last year,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “Greater Vancouver, Kamloops and Okanagan Mainline board areas posted the most significant changes, with home sales rising between 12.5 and 14 per cent. Stronger consumer demand combined with fewer homes listed for sale improved market conditions in most regions last year."

 

In December, BC residential unit sales rose 47 per cent to 4,426 units, compared to December 2012. Total dollar volume was 67.7 per cent higher at $2.5 billion, while the average MLS® residential price rose 14.1 per cent to $568,416.

 

"Large year-over-year changes in December reflect relatively weak activity the previous year rather than evidence of an accelerating market,” added Muir.

 

Till next time ...

 

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